Each scenario replays a BTC historical reference period on TAO. The actual daily BTC returns from that period are applied to TAO's current price, scaled by the difference in volatility between the two assets.

Volatility ratio. The scaling factor is vol_ratio = TAO 90d annualized vol / BTC reference-period annualized vol, clipped to [0.5, 2.5].

Phase detection. Peaks and troughs along the projected path are auto-detected using a 25% minimum-move threshold.

Confidence bands. The shaded q10/q90 bands provide approximately 80% coverage, growing proportionally to the square root of time.

Nightly recalculation. Every night, projections restart from TAO's latest closing price with a fresh volatility estimate.